Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 4.671692 5.567398 6.560926 7.740776 9.099553 10.611099 12.415443
2025-03-30 3.350044 4.551989 6.036006 7.984159 10.453104 13.455017 17.355410
2025-04-06 2.474138 3.774813 5.537103 8.054344 11.504419 16.007252 22.256755
2025-04-13 1.878676 3.182095 5.099804 8.046515 12.361314 18.332202 27.074459
2025-04-20 1.612913 2.984318 5.145382 8.669643 14.110134 21.992784 34.021391
2025-04-27 1.339692 2.699100 4.985645 8.927410 15.314517 24.960986 40.234345
2025-05-04 1.143429 2.492548 4.901061 9.265238 16.646217 28.204747 47.097239
2025-05-11 0.939505 2.218855 4.643518 9.258560 17.396025 30.590649 52.820656
2025-05-18 0.741974 1.905132 4.249498 8.939704 17.561076 32.028760 57.135716
2025-05-25 0.575724 1.610983 3.831906 8.501569 17.443661 32.958829 60.661696
2025-06-01 0.474088 1.434884 3.615121 8.405653 17.913355 34.893118 65.960989
2025-06-08 0.391056 1.279900 3.411420 8.299255 18.338292 36.764749 71.264004
2025-06-15 0.356583 1.246266 3.479741 8.783459 19.983014 40.996262 81.066378
2025-06-22 0.305484 1.151337 3.388027 8.911517 20.939675 44.060057 89.040997
2025-06-29 0.257571 1.049919 3.259746 8.937461 21.688203 46.792915 96.609343
2025-07-06 0.215544 0.951928 3.118973 8.910632 22.317612 49.340133 104.000008
2025-07-13 0.205459 0.959533 3.262229 9.583880 24.520253 55.101897 117.756806
2025-07-20 0.182697 0.913489 3.247023 9.862358 25.876769 59.278674 128.746425
2025-07-27 0.165304 0.881570 3.266096 10.229508 27.465784 64.027731 141.108943
2025-08-03 0.140431 0.809229 3.148568 10.221896 28.189178 67.051938 150.275481
2025-08-10 0.112204 0.708664 2.918755 9.874395 28.071676 68.309808 156.009100
2025-08-17 0.086937 0.607246 2.658846 9.396790 27.580400 68.725154 160.054151
2025-08-24 0.072268 0.550204 2.535893 9.292190 27.996509 71.122187 168.277868